Table 3: Previous analogue seasons and intensity of TCs that occurred in the Southwest Pacific during the November-April TC season . 1970 = November 1970-April 1971). Tropical cyclones are categorised in strength from 1 to 5, with 5 being the most intense. Then, click on the red marker to open the add anchorage window. In total, 9 named TCs are expected for the Southwest Pacificregion, fewer than the 1970-2020 average (11 TCs); however, the probable range of named storms is between 7 and 12 TCs. The next 10 names on the naming list are listed here below.[5]. Chappell, and J. Renwick, 2014. The consensus forms the basis for the full season (November-April) outlook for Southwest Pacific TC activity (and risk) for the 2020/21 season. The risk of an interaction for New Zealand (with at least one cyclone coming within 550 km of the country) for the 2020/21 season is elevated.

The September Long-Range Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Southwest Pacific (TCO-SP) suggests normal to below normal TC activity for the coming 2020/21 Southwest Pacific TC season (1st November 2020 to 30th April 2021). 2020-21 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season (Betting pools) 2020-21 Australian Region cyclone season (Betting pools) Future start. Diamond, H.J., and J.A. All analogue seasons had at least one cyclone of category 3 or greater strength, and a majority of the analogue seasons (4 out of 5) experienced a minimum of three severe cyclones (≥ category 3). The outlook for the region to the east of the International Date Line largely shows reduced risk overall, but small areas of increased TC track numbers clustered near the International Date Line close to Fiji. Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook, Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook - October 2020, Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook - October 2019, Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook - October 2018, Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook - October 2017, Air quality monitoring with low-cost sensors, ICES Expert Working Group Meetings – April 2017, http://www.meteo.nc/espro/previcycl/cyclA.php, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-67646-7. The spatial anomalies shown for this TC outlook strongly indicate reduced risk of cyclones for American Samoa, French Polynesia, and the Cook Islands. Oceanic and atmospheric forecasts for ENSO indicate moderate-to-strong La Niña conditions for the TC season are very likely. The dynamical guidance generally agrees with the analogue guidance for TC count and severity, but has two distinct clusters of above normal amounts of activity (Coral Sea and south of Vanuatu and Fiji). The Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department (VMGD) said on Monday that at least two to four … Despite the risk reduction in some places, cyclones are still expected for countries that typically experience one or more named cyclones per year. However, there is the potential for elevated activity near and west of the International Date Line (Vanuatu, New Caledonia, Coral Sea region) with normal or below normal activity to the east. Welcome to the 2020-21 South Pacific cyclone season forum page!

RSMC Nadi, TCWC Wellington and TCWC Brisbane all use the Australian Tropical Cyclone Intensity Scale and estimate windspeeds over a period of ten minutes, while the JTWC estimated sustained winds over a 1-minute period, which are subsequently compared to the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale (SSHWS). Table 1: Island Climate Update (ICU) consensus outlook for November 2020-April 2021 tropical cyclone activity based on combining NIWA analogue model, international dynamical climate model and TCO-SP deterministic statistical model outlook results. However, the probable range of named storms could lie between 9 and15 TCs. The interplay of hemispheric-scale atmospheric circulation with the timing of short-term Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) activity on a 30 to 50-day cycle has significant bearing on regional TC activity. Ahead of the cyclone season formally starting, the Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS), Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), New Zealand's MetService and National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) and various other Pacific Meteorological services, all contributed towards the Island Climate Update tropical cyclone outlook that was released during October 2020. Activity in general is expected to increase during the late season, especially for islands west of the International Date Line around the Coral Sea.

[2], Within the Southern Pacific a tropical depression is judged to have reached tropical cyclone intensity should it reach winds of 65 km/h, (40 mph) and it is evident that gales are occurring at least halfway around the center. Elevated activity is expected in the Coral Sea offshore of Queensland, between the Solomon Islands and New Caledonia, and in the north-central Tasman Sea (including Norfolk Island). The Accumulated Cyclone Energy, or ACE forecast:  ECMWF seasonal guidance indicates 80% (near normal amounts) of seasonal accumulated cyclone energy, a metric derived from tropical cyclone intensity and duration, across the basin as a whole. Some years there are none, while in other years there are more than one. In addition, TC activity is expected to be elevated across the north-central Tasman Sea region, encompassing the maritime area near Norfolk Island and to the northwest of New Zealand.

a Sub-regional models – where individual island TC climatology shows less than 1.5 TCs per season, geographically neighbouring exclusive economic zones (EEZs) have been merged to increase sample size (Click here for more information). For the coming 2020/21 season, the deterministic TCO-SP outlook for Southwest Pacific TC season suggests 9 named TCs will form (probable range of 7-10), indicating normal to below normal activity for the basin when compared with the 1981-2010 average of 11.4 TCs (Table 4 and Figure 9). Diamond, H.J., A.M. Lorrey, K.R. Steering winds are expected to be displaced south of normal, which may lead to reduced shear and increased retention of cyclone strength in the north Tasman Sea upon extra-tropical transition.



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